As
the industry seeks to raise $300 billion in new funds globally next
year, investors, in theory, should be able to strike better deals.
Break out your skis, next year may be all downhill for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Jan. 3, the first trading day of 2011, could prove the Dow's peak,
according to technical analysts at Citi. They say the trading behavior
of the index mirrors three historical periods (1906-1910, 1937-1940 and
1973-1977), each marked by a collapse followed by a sharp rally that
ultimately petered out.
If the pattern holds, 2010 will have marked the peak for the
bounce-back rally, like 1909, 1939 and 1976 before it. Ominously, for
each of the three previous periods, the following year's peak came on
Jan. 3.
The Citi report says the Dow will fall 16% next year. It suggests
the Dow may take another six to eight years to regain its 2007 highs on a
yearly close basis. The report encouraged readers to get some rest over
the holidays as they "may need it."
The report's author, Tom Fitzpatrick, is taking his own advice. He's out of the office until Jan. 3.
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