Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jan. 30, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Cross-Strait Issues

Chinese Dissidents Called the Death of “One Country, Two Systems” in Hong Kong (China Post, Jan. 28, 2011) Chinese dissidents Wang Dan and Wuer Kaixi slammed Hong Kong's decision to bar them from traveling to the territory, saying that the announcement was the best evidence to show that the so-called “one country, two systems” model was a lie.

U.S. Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

Superpower and Upstart: Sometimes It Ends Well By David E. Sanger (New York Times, Jan. 23, 2011) Both sides had used the past five months — in letters and phone calls between the presidents and quiet shuttling between Beijing and Washington — to diffuse fears that have already cropped up on both sides.
US Kept Taiwan in Mind during Hu Trip: Burghardt
(Taipei Times, Jan. 26, 2011) The American Institute in Taiwan head said that the US stuck by the Taiwan Relations Act when President Obama held talks with China’s Hu Jintao.
US-China Relations Take a New Direction?—Part I By David Shambaugh (YaleGlobal, Jan. 24, 2011) Both nations have bureaucracies, institutions and special interests that thrive on conflicts between the two, and Shambaugh concludes that for stable, long-lasting cooperation, leaders of the two nations must first overcome selfish domestic interests within their respective borders.
China Prism Focuses Pentagon Budget on New Weapons By Andrea Shalal-Esa (Reuters, Jan. 25, 2011) China’s test flight of a prototype stealth fighter will help insulate U.S. weapons spending against deeper cuts sought by deficit hawks.
Will Obama’s ‘Sputnik Moment’ Fly? By Don Lee and David Pierson(LA Times, Jan. 30, 2011) In his State of the Union call to revitalize the economy, President Obama suggested that Americans today face a new "Sputnik moment" — the challenge of another foreign superpower bent on domination. Engineer Jailed for Selling US Stealth Bomber Technology to China (Telegraph, Jan. 25, 2011) A former B-2 stealth bomber engineer has been jailed for 32 years by a US court for selling military secrets to China.   

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

2011 PLA Military Training: Toward Greater Interoperability By David Chen (China Brief 11(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 28, 2011) In general, PLA training in the coming year appears poised to continue experimentation and modification of force structures to accomplish the long-term objectives of preparing the Chinese armed forces to execute longer-distance joint operations.
Turning a New Leaf in Relations: Russia’s Renewed Arms Sale to China By Stephen Blank (China Brief 11(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 28, 2011) The strain in the bilateral arms sales and geopolitical tension between a rising China and declining Russia still remain. Yet for the time being the two sides appear to have reached a mutual accommodation. Defense Chief Defends Missile Test Results
(China Post, Jan. 29, 2011) Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu said that it is rather difficult for every fired missile to hit the bull's eye. But he also stressed there is definitely room for improvement.
President Urges U.S. to Sell Taiwan F-16C/D Fighters
(CNA, Jan. 25, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou said the United States should sell Taiwan advanced F-16 C/D jet fighters because the existing military imbalance across the Taiwan Strait could impede the further development of cross-strait relations.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Center Says Odds on Ma Winning
(Taipei Times, Jan. 25, 2011) A university prediction center said there was a 47 percent chance that President Ma Ying-jeou would win next year’s presidential election, although the probability that the KMT or DPP would step into the Presidential Office was almost on a par.
Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Jan. 25, 2011) If the election was to be held today, Ma Ying-jeou would defeat Tsai Ing-wen 48% to 37%, and Su Tseng-chang 46% to 38%.
Presidential Bid Possible: Hsieh
(Taipei Times, Jan. 27, 2011) Former premier Frank Hsieh said he’s still open to running for president next year, despite his statement almost three years ago that he would back out of politics.
Environment Is Not Right for TIFA Talks: AIT Chief
(China Post, Jan. 26, 2011) The current environment is not conducive for the United States and Taiwan to hold a new round of high-level Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks, said the visiting chairman of the AIT, Raymond Burghardt.
Taiwan Lukewarm to Signing Economic Cooperation Pact with Hong Kong (CNA, Jan. 26, 2011) Taiwan said that it's not in a hurry to ink an economic cooperation agreement with Hong Kong.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

China Grooming Deft Politician As Next Leader By Edward Wong and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Jan. 24, 2011) Following a secretive succession plan sketched out years ago, Mr. Hu has already begun preparing for his departure from power, passing the baton to his presumed successor, a former provincial leader named Xi Jinping.
China Leader Encourages Criticism of Government
(New York Times, Jan. 27, 2011) Prime Minister Wen Jiabao appeared at the nation’s top petition bureau in Beijing, where people go to file grievances, and encouraged citizens to criticize the government and press their cases for justice.
China Is Walking a Democratic Path By Steven Hill(Project Syndicate, Jan. 30, 2011) Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping  was quoted in 1987 as saying that there would be national elections in 50 years. China’s democratic trajectory generates little fanfare, but it may actually deliver on Deng’s promise ahead of schedule.
China to Open Up Yuan Cautiously, Boost Trade
(Reuters, Jan. 27, 2011) China will carefully open up its yuan to more trading based on market needs and plans to double its level of imports in five years, its commerce minister said.

  

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

US-China Relations Take a New Direction?—Part II By Harsh V. Pant (YaleGlobal, Jan. 26, 2011) India and other nations throughout Asia, unsure about US ability or willingness to stay the course, quietly go about building their own strengths, seeking counterbalance to China.
Japan’s Exports to China at Record High in 2010
(Dow Jones, Jan. 26, 2011) Japan's exports to China hit a record high in 2010, underscoring the importance of China's growth to the export-dependent Japanese economy.

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Regards,

Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org