Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday 28 August 2011

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Aug. 28, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Tsai Unveils DPP's Cross-Strait Policies

Tsai Details DPP’s Cross-Strait Policies
(Taipei Times, Aug. 24, 2011) In a press conference to publicize her cross-strait policies, the DPP presidential candidate denied the existence of the so-called “1992 consensus” and said that if she were elected president, the ECFA signed with China last year would be reviewed by the legislature and adjusted if necessary.

DPP Chief Denies ’92 Consensus,’ Calls for New Mechanism
(CNA, Aug. 23, 2011) Opposition DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, the party's presidential candidate, reiterated her party's stance Tuesday that the so-called "1992 consensus" does not exist.

Taiwan Opposition’s Tsai Pledges to Stick to ‘Status Quo’ in China Policy (Bloomberg, Aug. 23, 2011) Taiwan presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen pledged her China policies would reflect the consensus of the island’s voters that the “status quo” should be sustained if she wins in January elections.

DPP Leader’s Policy Guidelines Unacceptable
(China Daily, Aug. 24, 2011)

Taiwan

opposition leader’s “10-year policy guidelines” are unrealistic and unacceptable, said a Chinese mainland spokesman.

Tsai Tells Beijing to Find the ‘Olive Branches’ in Her Platform
(CNA, Aug. 26, 2011) The presidential candidate of Taiwan's opposition party asked China to look for “many olive branches and good will” in her recently unveiled platform.

Chinese Official Offers Fierce Criticism of Tsai
(China Post, Aug. 27, 2011) DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen's denial of the “1992 Consensus” was heavily criticized by Chinese official Wang Yi, who called the DPP chairwoman “unrealistic” and “irresponsible.”

Ma Claims Chen Shui-ban Backs ‘1992 Consensus’
(China Post, Aug. 28, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou said his predecessor Chen Shui-bian from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party also had backed the so-called “1992 Consensus” recognizing “one

China

.”

Cross-Strait Issues

7th High-Level Cross-Strait Meeting To Be Postponed: SEF Chief
(CNA, Aug. 22, 2011) The seventh institutionalized high-level conference between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may be postponed to mid or late September, Taiwan's top negotiator with China said.

PLA Pushing for Political Talks: Cable
(Taipei Times, Aug. 25, 2011) “Although economics were his [Ma’s] priority in cross-Strait discussions, PRC military activities might require him to engage the PRC on political topics as well,” said a cable issued by the AIT dated Dec. 16, 2009.

Can Taiwan Escape China’s Ever-Tightening Embrace? By Doug Bandow (Forbes, Aug. 22, 2011) How can Taiwan escape Beijing’s potentially suffocating embrace? It won’t be easy. Government Information Minister Philip Yang observed: “We need to be prudent and patient in dealing with cross-strait relations” in order to “maintain our independence and prosperity.”

U.S. Policy

US Official Says Biden Didn’t Refer to Taiwan As China’s ‘Core Interest’ (CNA, Aug. 24, 2011) An official of the U.S. State Department said that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden did not refer to Taiwan and Tibet as part of China's core interests, as was reported by Xinhua news agency last week during Biden's visit to Beijing.

The US Has To Bring Taiwan in From Cold By Nat Bellocchi(Taipei Times, Aug. 24, 2011) While the US does need to engage China to encourage it to take a responsible stance toward its neighbors, it should also be emphasized that the US needs to draw clear lines in the sand, so that Beijing fully understands Washington’s position.

WikiLeaks: US Rules for Contacting Taiwanese Revealed
(Taipei Times, Aug. 25, 2011) The cable, dated Sept. 5, 2008, showed that then-US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice issued a directive to overseas diplomatic missions detailing the guidelines, which the cable said did not apply to the American Institute in Taiwan.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

U.S. Official Warns about China’s Military Buildup
(New York Times, Aug. 25, 2011) The pace and scope of China’s military buildup is “potentially destabilizing” in the Pacific, a top defense official warned as the Pentagon released an annual report, titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011.”

China Still a Threat, Former Official Says
(Taipei Times, Aug. 27, 2011) Despite showing goodwill and friendliness in its economic and cultural exchanges with Taiwan, China has never ceased its military exercises simulating attacks on the nation, former deputy defense minister Lin Chong-pin said.

US Senator Proposes Back-Door F-16 Sale to Taiwan
(VOA, Aug. 23, 2011) A U.S. senator says the American Congress may try to push through a sale of advanced F-16 jet fighters to

Taiwan

even if the Obama administration decides against the sale.

Squaring US, China, Taiwan Ties By Doug Bandow(Taipei Times, Aug. 22, 2011) Empowering Taiwan is worth risking tense relations with the PRC. After all, arms sales do not put the US and China closer to a path to war. Rather, they create a disincentive for Beijing to consider war as an option.

2012 Presidential Election and Taiwan's Domestic Issues

Survey on the Approval Rating of President Ma Ying-jeou and the Cabinet (GVSRC, Aug. 23, 2011) 33.9% of respondents were satisfied with President Ma Ying-jeou’s performance, while 55.1% not.

Survey on Presidential Election in 2012 and the Evaluation of the Presidential Candidates (GVSRC, Aug. 23, 2011) In a three-candidate election, the support rates of Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen and James Soong are 35.1%, 33.9%, and 14.0%, respectively.

Tsai Unveils DPP’s Policy Guidelines
(China Post, Aug. 23, 2011) DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen officially unveiled her party’s 10-year policy guidelines, saying they illustrated the contrast between the DPP’s values and those of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).

Tsai Ing-wen Unveils Judicial Reform Policy
(Taipei Times, Aug. 26, 2011) Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen pledged to launch judicial reforms that would protect human rights and the public interest if elected in January.

How to Resolve Domestic Conflicts By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Aug. 22, 2011) To avoid domestic conflict and to unite Taiwan, the next president should use the Taiwanese consensus to unite the pan-blue and pan-green camps, while relying on democracy to move beyond the unification-independence conflict.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

China Details Yuan Use Offshore
(Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 2011) China has released draft guidelines on foreign investors' use of yuan acquired overseas for direct investment in the country, taking another significant step forward in further internationalizing the Chinese currency and opening the nation's tightly controlled capital account.

Why China May Let the Yuan Rise By Martin Feldstein(Project Syndicate, Aug. 26, 2011) There are two fundamental reasons why Beijing might choose such a policy: reducing its portfolio risk and containing domestic inflation.

China Faces Obstacles in Bid to Rebalance Its Economy By Edward Wong (New York Times, Aug. 25, 2011)

China

has incentives to change its model: its economic policies contribute to wasted resources, vast social inequality and a soaring inflation, which leaders fear will fuel social instability.

Libya Policy a Balancing Act for China By Andrew Higgins(Washington Post, Aug. 27, 2011) Responding to the collapse of Gaddafi’s rule this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said curtly that Beijing respected “the choice of the Libyan people.”